🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.